The Agriculture Department’s latest report on agricultural supply and demand for the 2014-2015 marketing year confirms that U.S. grain producers can expect record yields and low market returns, the American Farm Bureau Federation said today.
Yield estimates for both corn and soybeans are even higher than anticipated, with corn at 171.7 bushels per acre and soybeans coming in at 46.6 bushels per acre. Although projected usage is also looking higher to help absorb the excess supply, prices are still expected to be the lowest since 2009-2010, Farm Bureau Deputy Chief Economist John Anderson said.
“With a price forecast mid-point of $3.50 for corn, we’re looking at the lowest marketing year average price since 2006-07,” Anderson said. “And it is unlikely these prices will improve as the season’s projected carryover is at 2.002 billion bushels, the largest carryover since the 2004-05 marketing year.” Carryover for soybeans is also expected to increase from a record low 130 million bushels at the end of 2013-14 to 475 million bushels, the largest since 2006-07.
Global production continues to reach record highs as well. Outside the U.S., soybean production is estimated at 311.13 million metric tons – a record level. Global carryover is expected to reach just over 90 MMT, a record level of carryover. Global wheat production is also expected to reach a record level of 720 MMT.